Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Mark Jit; Thibaut Jombart; Emily S. Nightingale; Akira Endo; Sam Abbott; W. John Edmunds

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632

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Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Journal article

Open access

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Mark Jit, Thibaut Jombart, Emily S. Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott and W. John Edmunds

Eurosurveillance

2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632

Abstract

contact examination

coronavirus disease 2019

disease surveillance

epidemic

hospitalization

human

incidence

intensive care

isolation

mathematical model

maximum likelihood method

prevalence

quarantine

Review

United Kingdom

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February. © 2020 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.

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Title: Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
Creators - without role: Mark Jit - University of Hong Kong
Thibaut Jombart - Imperial College London
Emily S. Nightingale - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Akira Endo - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Sam Abbott - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
W. John Edmunds - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Publication Details: Eurosurveillance
Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Grant note: Funding text 1: Funding: This research was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose No 101003688 (MJ, JE), National Institute for Health Research - Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (MJ) and for Modelling Methodology (MJ, TJ, JE), the Economic and Social Research Council RCUK grant ES/P010873/1 (TJ), the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (TJ), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP1183986 (ESN) the Nakajima Foundation (AE), the Alan Turing Institute (AE) and the Wellcome Trust grant 210758/Z/18/Z (SA). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, Public Health England or the UK Department of Health and Social Care.; Funding text 2: This research was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose No 101003688 (MJ, JE), National Institute for Health Research - Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (MJ) and for Modelling Methodology (MJ, TJ, JE), the Economic and Social Research Council RCUK grant ES/P010873/1 (TJ), the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (TJ), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP1183986 (ESN) the Nakajima Foundation (AE), the Alan Turing Institute (AE) and the Wellcome Trust grant 210758/Z/18/Z (SA). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, Public Health England or the UK Department of Health and Social Care.
Identifiers: 9921345009548
Academic Unit: Alan Turing Institute
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Date published: 2020

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

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