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Eliciting Probabilistic Judgements for Integrating Decision Support Systems
Book chapter

Eliciting Probabilistic Judgements for Integrating Decision Support Systems

Martine J. Barons, Sophia K. Wright and Jim Q. Smith
Elicitation, pp.445-478
International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Springer International Publishing
2018

Abstract

Candidate Policies Expected Utility Scores Food Poverty Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS) Overarching Framework
When facing extremely large and interconnected systems, decision-makers must often combine evidence obtained from multiple expert domains, each informed by a distinct panel of experts. To guide this combination so that it takes place in a coherent manner, we need an integrating decision support system (IDSS). This enables the user to calculate the subjective expected utility scores of candidate policies as well as providing a framework for incorporating measures of uncertainty into the system. Throughout this chapter we justify and describe the use of IDSS models and how this procedure is being implemented to inform decision-making for policies impacting food poverty within the UK. In particular, we provide specific details of this elicitation process when the overarching framework of the IDSS is a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN).

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